GWP- METEOROLOGY
Geophysics of the Atmosphere

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Lorenz Attractor

* Meteorology is the science that studies the atmosphere and the ionosphere. Although in practice it is centered in the study and the forecasting of the atmospheric weather.
* The atmospheric weather corresponds to the weather conditions of the moment and considers the hours of sun, rain, snow, wind, humidity, temperature and atmospheric pressure. The clouds help to the weather forecast due to the fact that they have got a strong relationship with the atmospheric changes. Nowadays the meteorologists can forecast the weather with a 85% reliability when the anticipation is 10 hours (while greater anticipation lesser the realibility)
* The experimental data show that the Earth atmosphere is unsteady and no linear, so it is well characterized with the Chaos Theory. As the evolution of a chaotic system is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, as a summary that thereis a limit to the duet realibility - anticipation independant to the presicion of the data processed and the complexity of the model used. On one hand it is impossible to make a forecast with 100% of realibility for particular systems. However the Theory of Chaos allows to predict with great accuracy the global climatic changes, because in this case it is no sought to extrapolate a specific trajectory in the phases space, but it is sought the form and position of the ATTRACTOR of the system.
* Most of the foundation of the Theory of Chaos is due to the work of Edward Lorenz, who developed at the beginnings of the 60's a simplified model of the weather based in the following system of diferential equations:

dx/dt = y D -x
dy/dt = x R - y - xz
dz/dt = xy - z B

Where D= number of Prandtl, R= difference of temperature between the longitude and the height of the system, x= reason of rotation of cylinder, y= the difference of temperatures between the base and the top of the system and z= the deviation of the vertical line in a graph which corresponds to the temperature (the graph is shown to the left and called "ALorenz Attractor"- see fractals). The most important discovering was the extreme sensitivity of the equations faced to the initial conditions, what is known as the "Butterfly Effect": the divergence between two trajectories inicially closed in the space of phases is increased exponetially, what finally generates climatic patterns radically different, or in other words "the fly of a butterfly in Hong Kong can create a tornado in Kansas".

Climatology

- Climate is defined as the state between the of the meteorological variables during a long time of observation (above 10 years)
- Climatology is the science that studies all the energy interchange forms between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, throughthe statistical treatment of the meteorological phenomena occurring in a specific place

* Determining the climate in a region requires many relationed phases to the statistical treatment of the data: from the determination of the average of every variable (Reductionist or Analitic Method) to the use of signs that relate each other (Sinergic Method or of the Indexes), with the objective of stablishing weather forecast (Sinoptic Method)

* Information about Katrina (sept 05)

EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA


Climatic disorders occurred during El Niño

El Niño corresponds to an abnormal heting of the Humboldt Current. This phenomenon deoxygenates the water, which causes the withdrawal of fish.
The trade winds that normally blow from Intertropical America to Oceania weaken and even, can change from sense what increases the rainfall in the North Zone and Central Zone of Chile (45% extra)
- Episodes of El Niño: 1902, 1905, 1911, 1914, 1918, 1925, 1929, 1939, 1941, 1953, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1986, 1992 y 1997 (710 mm of rainfall in Santiago = record)

See More | DOWNLOAD OCEANIC TEMPERATURES

* La Niña corresponds to a natural phenomenon that cools excesively the water, what oxygenates and increases the sea fauna.
The trade winds increase, so a frontal system gets difficult to create in Chile (draught)
The Anticyclon Subtropical of the Southeast Pacific gets intensified
- Episodes of La Niña: 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924 (only 66 mm of rainfall in Santiago), 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995, 1998.

ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND THE OZONE LAYER

CHARACTERIZATION
The UV radiation corresponds to every radiation of wave longitude under 4000 A° (so its not visible) It was discovered by Johannes Ritter in the early XIX century and it is divided in to three regions:
- A -UV: 3200- 4000 A°, responsible of the suntanning
- B - UV = "Biological UV": 2800- 3200 A°. It's dangerous to the health but when touches the Earth it is very tiny thanks to the ozone layer.
- C - UV: with a shorter longitude of waves than the other ones, so it corresponds to photones with higher energy = more harmful (they are also absorved by the atmosphere).

UV INDEX
Corresponds to a normalized value 10 (but it can be exceded) it pronosticates the maximum quantity of UV radiation that the surface is going to receive during the time of higher radiation (the solar noon)
The unit of the sign UV corresponds to 25 mW/m2
Types of skin: A (wither, extremely sensitive to the UV radiation, it burns instead of suntanning), B, C and D (black skin never burns, but suntans)

THE OZONE
The atmospheric ozone is formed photochemically (photolisis) throug two forms:
- In the inferior part of the Tropospere (where it is considered a part of the smog)

NO2 + PHOTON (2800- 4300A°) --> NO + O
O + O2 + Solid Base--> O3 + Solid Base

- In the Stratosphere (20- 30 Km) where it is part of the "Ozone Layer":

O2 + PHOTON (< 2000 A°) --> 2O
O + O2 + Solid Base --> O3 + Solid Base

 

The ozone layer has two special functions for living, acting as a protector shield against the UV rays coming from the sun. According to the UN inform "Impacts of the UV radiation in the ecosystem", the lowering to the ozone layer is going to increase the skin cancer cases and is going to cause the loss of seven million tons of fish every year. If all agreements were fulfilled, the ozone layer would get recover by the year 2070.

- The presence of a 'hole' in the ozone layer is determined if the content of ozone is below 220 matm x cm (miliatmospheres per cm)
- Punta Arenas, Puerto Williams and Villa Las Estrellas (Chilean Antarctica) are used to be included inside the zone of the hole in the ozone layer.

The destruction of the ozone layer is due to the chlorine that is present in the atmosphere:

O3 + Cl --> ClO + O2

Unfortunately the ClO always becomes into chlorine:

ClO + O --> Cl + O2

... What take us again to the first reaction, it means the chlorine is not wasted away in the process.

(NOTE: The nitrogen oxides, the freons and the olefinas destroy the ozone)

MORE (Spanish):
* Contaminación Atmosférica y Redes Neuronales
* Contaminación: Cambio del Modelo Predictivo
* El Efecto Invernadero (2003)
* Informe secreto del Pentágono (Feb 04) Bush
* Modelamiento del Clima (Apr 2005)

x

CHRONOLOGY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION FORECAST IN SANTIAGO

* 1995:
i) Ruttlant and Garreaud correlate an index refered to the potential pollution with other the sinthesices the characteristics of a different contaminants of the air.
ii) Prendez et al find out that there is a high correlation between the solar radiation and the Particle Material (PM) suspended over Santiago.

1996: In SOCHIFI X is published the paper "Predicción de la concentración de partículas contaminantes en Santiago de Chile, usando una red neuronal" by Reyes, Pérez and Trier.

* 1998:
i) It is published in FEXAP 98 the paper "Método Neuronal para predecir niveles de contaminación atmosférica" by the authors Pérez, Trier, Reyes, Silva and Montaño.
ii) Pérez et al show in StatPhys 20 (Paris) the work "Predictability of time series on atmospheric pollution by particulate matter".
iii) Reyes et al show in SOCHIFI XI the work "Predictibilidad del material particulado PM2.5 en Santiago de Chile utilizando técnicas de modelación de sistemas dinámicos y redes neuronales".
iv) The DS N° 16/98 stablishes the patterns to be fulfilled the official predictor of atmospheric pollution: a global reliability greater than 65%.
v) CONAMA starts working its first predictor getting a reliability of 59%.

* 1999
Cassmassi publishes the work "Improvement of the forecast air quality and of the knowledge of the local meteorological conditions in the metropolitan region".

* 2000
i) In the International magazine Atmospheric Environment 34 (2000), Pérez, Trier and Reyes show the work "Prediction of PM2.5 concentrations several hours in advance using neural networks in Santiago, Chile"
ii) In SOCHIFI 2000 Reyes et al show the work "Desarrollo de un predictor de la concentración de 24 horas de MP10 mediante la utilización de redes neuronales"
iii) The Geophysics Department of Universidad de Chile announces that the Cassmassi Model has an accuracy of 71%.
iv) CONAMA replaces its previous predictor by the Cassmassi Model.

* 2001: In Neural Computing & Applications the work "Prediction of particulate air pollution using neural techniques" by the authors Pérez and Reyes is published.

* 2002:
i) In Atmospheric Environment 36 the work "Prediction of maximum of 24-h average of PM10 concentrations 30 h in advance in Santiago, Chile"by Pérez and Reyes is published.
ii) Guillermo Díaz, Director of CONAMA communicates the using of a parallel to Cassmassi Neuronal Predictor during 2002.

Cassmassi and Neuronal Model, year 2002:

LEVEL
CASSMASSI
NEURONAL M.
Good to
Regular
77.9 %
91.2%
Alert
57.1 %
71.4 %
Preemergency
50.0 %
62.5 %
GLOBAL
74.8 %
86.7 %

* 2003:
i) Marcelo Trivelli states that the Cassmassi Model is a very good model and that what is really important is not accurately forecast or predict but to contaminate less (??)

ii) To the right there is a comparison between Cassmassi and Neuronal Model done up to August 10th 2003

LEVEL
CASSMASSI
M NEURONAL
Good to
Regular
80.0 %
96.0 %
Alert
30.0 %
52.0 %
Preemergency
25.0 %
50.0 %
GLOBAL
71.0 %
88.0 %

CLOUDS AND ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER

I) High Clouds (above 6000 m)
- Cirros: clouds made up by ice crystals. If they are associated with cirrocúmulos they forecast bad weather conditions
- Cirrocúmulos: they gather as white flakes or round masses
- Cirroestratos: they gather as milky veil. They forecast storms
II) Middle clouds (from 2000 to 6000 m)
- Altocúmulos: icy masses distributed in white layers
- Altoestratos: they are shown as gray or blue veils. They forecast long rainfalls
III) Low clouds
- Estratocúmulos: thick clouds which usually have a shred form. They forecast moderated rainfalls
- Nimboestratos: corpuscles with shiny and gray intervals and very dark spots.
- Estratos: clouds of uniform light gray looking as fog. They only originate light drizzle.


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